01 November 2004

the day before

Well, if this is correct, Kerry might win the election by 298 electoral votes to Bush's 231. Of course, given polling difficulties in this year's race it's not very likely that the data is correct and the only poll that matters in the end is the one tomorrow.

Zogby has done a first-ever text-messaging poll of cell phone users, attempting to get a handle on the preferences of that elusive 18-29 year old demographic, which much of the traditional land-line polling seems to miss. The result is (unsurprisingly) that they favor Kerry over Bush, 55% to 40%.

But this demographic also has notoriously low voter turn-out on election day. Still, it is difficult to tell, but I wouldn't be surprised if the younger voter turn-out this year were higher than expected. I've had a number of students tell me that they will be absent from class since they are going home to vote, in some cases, several states away. I've never seen my students quite so interested in an election, though this is only the third presidential election during which I've been teaching college-aged voters.

Well, we'll know tomorrow, I guess. Maybe. Or in a couple weeks at least...